iran’s significant success in implementing family planning (fp) during the past 25 years, has made it a role model in the world. the total fertility rate (tfr) in iran has dropped from 6.5 in 1960 to 1.6 in 2012, which is well below the targeted value of 2.2 for the country. iran’s success story, however, did not merely root in the implementation of fp programs. in other words, families’ strong...

BEFORE EXPLAINING why we disagree with the views expressed in the two preceding comments, we summarize briefly the purpose and main features of the method described in Bongaarts and Feeney (1998). Our study set out to address a well-known flaw in the total fertility rate, the most widely used measure of period fertility. The TFR is affected by changes in the timing of childbearing. In years whe...

Iran’s significant success in implementing Family Planning (FP) during the past 25 years, has made it a role model in the world. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Iran has dropped from 6.5 in 1960 to 1.6 in 2012, which is well below the targeted value of 2.2 for the country. Iran’s success story, however, did not merely root in the implementation of FP programs. In other words, families’ strong...

extended abstract introduction the fertility transition in iran has pass through different stages from 1972-2015.the total fertility rate (tfr) decreased from 7.7 in 1966 to around 6 in 1976.then it rose to 7 in 1980.tfr decline to 5.5 in 1988.in 1996,thetotal fertility rate reach to 2.8,more than 50% decline. tfr has declined further and reached 2.17 in 2000, and 1.9 in 2012 i.e. below replace...

We describe a Bayesian projection model to produce country-specific projections of the total fertility rate (TFR) for all countries. The model decomposes the evolution of TFR into three phases: pre-transition high fertility, the fertility transition, and post-transition low fertility. The model for the fertility decline builds on the United Nations Population Division's current deterministic pr...

This article describes a methodology for applying a discrete-time survival model-the complementary log-log model-to estimate effects of socioeconomic variables on (1) the total fertility rate and its components and (2) trends in the total fertility rate and its components. For the methodology to be applicable, the total fertility rate (TFR) must be calculated from parity progression ratios (PPR...

Discussions about fertility in developed countries refer almost exclusively to the period Total Fertility Rate (TFR). We argue that the use of this indicator frequently leads to incorrect interpretations of period fertility levels and trends, resulting in distorted policy conclusions and, potentially, in misguided policies. We illustrate this with four policy-relevant examples, drawn from conte...

A country's total fertility rate (TFR) depends on many factors. Attributing changes in TFR to changes of policy is difficult, as they could easily be correlated with changes in the unmeasured drivers of TFR. A case in point is Australia where both pronatalist effort and TFR increased in lock step from 2001 to 2008 and then decreased. The global financial crisis or other unobserved confounders m...